Mu 2024, bitewe n’uburyo bubiri bw’ubukungu bw’isi ndetse n’icyerekezo cya politiki y’imbere mu gihugu, inganda za aluminiyumu mu Bushinwa zerekanye ibintu bigoye kandi bihinduka. Muri rusange, ingano yisoko ikomeje kwaguka, kandi umusaruro wa aluminium nogukoresha byakomeje kwiyongera, ariko umuvuduko wubwiyongere wahindutse. Ku ruhande rumwe, bitewe n’ibisabwa cyane ku binyabiziga bishya by’ingufu, Photovoltaque, amashanyarazi n’izindi nzego, urwego rwo gukoresha aluminium rukomeje kwaguka, rutera imbaraga nshya mu iterambere ry’inganda; Ku rundi ruhande, ihungabana ry’isoko ry’imitungo ryashyize igitutu ku cyifuzo cya aluminium mu rwego rw’ubwubatsi. Inganda za aluminiyumu zijyanye n’imihindagurikire y’isoko, ingamba zo guhangana n’imihindagurikire idasanzwe ku biciro by’ibikoresho fatizo, hamwe n’ibikorwa byo kwinjiza ibikenewe mu iterambere ry’icyatsi na karuboni nkeya biracyashakishwa kandi bigenda bishimangirwa buhoro buhoro. Kugaragara k'umusaruro mushya w’inganda ntiwujuje ibisabwa mu iterambere ry’inganda, kandi inganda za aluminium zihura n’ibibazo byinshi.
1.isesengura ryinganda zinganda
Alumina
Muri Kamena 2024, umusaruro wari toni miliyoni 7.193, wiyongereyeho 1,4% umwaka ushize, kandi kwiyongera ku kwezi kwari kugarukira. Mu bice bikurikira byo kongera ubushobozi bw’umusaruro wasohotse, umusaruro mushya muri Mongoliya Imbere urashobora gusohoka buhoro buhoro, kandi ubushobozi bwo gukora bwakomeje kwiyongera.
Muri 2024, igiciro cya alumina gihindagurika cyane, cyerekana ibimenyetso bigaragara. Mu gice cya mbere cy’umwaka, igiciro muri rusange cyerekanaga ko cyazamutse, muri byo kuva muri Mutarama kugeza Gicurasi, igiciro cya alumina cyazamutse kiva kuri 3.000 Yuan / toni mu ntangiriro z’umwaka kigera ku mafaranga arenga 4000 / toni, kikaba cyiyongereyeho hejuru ya 30%. Impamvu nyamukuru yo kuzamuka kwibiciro muriki cyiciro ni itangwa ryinshi rya bauxite yo mu gihugu, bigatuma ibiciro bya alumina byiyongera.
Izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro bya alumina ryateje igitutu kinini ku giciro cy’inganda zo munsi ya electrolytike ya aluminium. Kugirango habeho toni 1 ya electrolytike ya aluminium ikenera gukoresha toni 1.925 yo kubara alumina, igiciro cya alumina cyazamutseho 1000 yu / toni, ibiciro bya aluminium electrolytike biziyongera hafi 1925 / toni. Mu rwego rwo guhangana n’igiciro cy’ibiciro, inganda zimwe na zimwe za aluminium electrolytike zatangiye kugabanya umusaruro cyangwa kudindiza isubukurwa ry’umugambi w’umusaruro, nk'intara ya Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Liaoning, Chongqing n'utundi turere duhenze cyane mu bigo bimwe na bimwe byo mu Bushinwa byatangaje ko bivugurura, guhagarika tank cyangwa kugabanya umuvuduko wo kongera umusaruro.
Amashanyarazi ya aluminium
Mu 2022, ubushobozi bwo gukora bwari hafi toni miliyoni 43, bwegereye umurongo utukura. Kugeza mu Kuboza 2024, ubushobozi bwo gukora mu nganda za aluminium ya electrolytique mu Bushinwa bwari toni 43.584.000, bwiyongereyeho toni miliyoni 1.506, ni ukuvuga 3.58%, ugereranije na toni 42.078.000 mu mpera za 2023. Kugeza ubu, umusaruro wose wa aluminium y’amashanyarazi mu gihugu wegereye “igisenge” cya toni miliyoni 45 z’ubushobozi bwo gukora. Ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’iyi politiki rifite akamaro kanini mu iterambere rirambye ry’inganda za aluminium electrolytike. Ifasha kugenzura ubushobozi bukabije mu nganda, kwirinda irushanwa ribi, no guteza imbere iterambere ry’inganda mu cyerekezo cyiza, icyatsi kandi kirambye. Mu gukuraho ubushobozi bw’umusaruro wasubiye inyuma no kuzamura ingufu z’ingufu, inganda zirashishikarizwa kongera udushya mu ikoranabuhanga n’ishoramari mu kubungabunga ingufu no kugabanya ibyuka bihumanya ikirere, no kuzamura ubushobozi rusange bw’inganda.
Gutunganya aluminium
Hamwe nogutezimbere ibisabwa byoroheje mubikorwa bitandukanye, icyifuzo cyibicuruzwa bitunganijwe bya aluminiyumu bikomeje kwiyongera, kandi ibicuruzwa biratera imbere mu cyerekezo cyo mu rwego rwo hejuru, gifite ubwenge no kurengera ibidukikije. Mubikorwa byubwubatsi, nubwo muri rusange isoko ryamazu ryifashe nabi, inzugi za aluminium na Windows, inkuta zumwenda nibindi bicuruzwa biracyafite icyifuzo gihamye mumazu mashya yubucuruzi, inyubako zo mu rwego rwo hejuru ndetse n’imishinga yo kuvugurura inyubako ishaje. Dukurikije imibare, ingano ya aluminiyumu ikoreshwa mu nganda zubaka igera kuri 28% y’ikoreshwa rya aluminiyumu. Mu rwego rwo gutwara abantu, cyane cyane iterambere ryihuse ry’ibinyabiziga bishya by’ingufu, gukenera ibikoresho byo gutunganya aluminiyumu byagaragaje imbaraga zikomeye zo gukura. Hamwe no kwihuta kwimikorere yimodoka yoroheje, aluminiyumu ikoreshwa cyane kandi ikoreshwa cyane mumiterere yumubiri, ihuriro ryibiziga, trayeri ya batiri nibindi bice. Dufashe nk'urugero rushya rw'ingufu, urugero rwa aluminiyumu ikoreshwa mu mubiri wacyo urenga 400 kg / ikinyabiziga, kikiyongera cyane ugereranije n’ibinyabiziga gakondo. Byongeye kandi, icyifuzo cy’abayobora aluminium, imirasire ya aluminiyumu n’ibindi bicuruzwa mu nganda z’amashanyarazi nacyo cyazamutse cyane hamwe no kubaka no kuzamura amashanyarazi.
Aluminiyumu
Mu myaka yashize, umusaruro wakomeje kwiyongera, 2024 ni umwaka utazibagirana kugira ngo Ubushinwa butunganyirizwa mu Bushinwa kugira ngo bugere ku ntera ikomeye, kandi umusaruro wa aluminiyumu ukoreshwa buri mwaka wacishije kuri toni miliyoni 10, ugera kuri toni zigera kuri miliyoni 10.55, kandi ikigereranyo cya aluminiyumu yongeye gukoreshwa na aluminiyumu y'ibanze cyabaye hafi 1: 4. Nyamara, gutunganya imyanda ya aluminiyumu, isoko yiterambere rya aluminiyumu yongeye gukoreshwa, ntabwo ari byiza.
Iterambere ry’inganda zikoreshwa na aluminiyumu zishingiye cyane cyane ku itangwa ry’ibikoresho fatizo bya aluminiyumu, kandi itangwa ry’ibikoresho fatizo bya aluminiyumu byongeye gukoreshwa mu Bushinwa birahura n’ibibazo bikomeye. Sisitemu yo gutunganya imyanda ya aluminiyumu yo mu gihugu ntabwo itunganye, nubwo Ubushinwa bumaze kugarura imyanda ya aluminiyumu mu turere tumwe na tumwe ku rwego rw’isi ku isi, nk'ibikopo byo gutunganya imyanda ya aluminiyumu bishobora kugera ku 100%, iyubakwa ry’imyanda ya aluminiyumu irashobora kugera kuri 90%, ikibuga cy’ubwikorezi bw’imodoka ni 87%, ariko igipimo rusange cyo kugarura ibintu kiracyakenewe kunozwa, cyane cyane ko imiyoboro itunganya imyanda itatatanye kandi itari isanzwe, umubare munini w’imyanda itaboneka.
Guhindura politiki yo gutumiza mu mahanga nabyo byagize uruhare runini mu itangwa ry’ibikoresho fatizo bya aluminiyumu. Mu myaka yashize, Ubushinwa bwashyize mu bikorwa ingamba zikomeye zo kugenzura ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga bya aluminiyumu kugira ngo bishimangire kurengera ibidukikije no gucunga umutungo. Ibi byatumye habaho ihindagurika ryinshi mu gutumiza mu mahanga ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bya aluminiyumu yongeye gukoreshwa, mu Kwakira 2024, ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga bya aluminiyumu byatumijwe mu Bushinwa byinjije toni 133.000, byiyongereyeho 0.81%, bikamanuka 13.59% umwaka ushize, uko ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga bigaragaza ihungabana ry’ibicuruzwa.
2.Aluminum yinganda zinganda isoko
Aluminium oxyde
Mu 2025, hazaba hari ubushobozi bushya bwo gutanga umusaruro, hiyongereyeho hafi 13%, hamwe n’uko bishoboka ko ibirombe bitumizwa mu mahanga bishobora gusimbuza byimazeyo ibirombe by’imbere mu gihugu cy’Ubushinwa, kandi guhindura politiki yo kugabanyirizwa imisoro ya aluminium yoherezwa mu mahanga bizahagarika izamuka ry’ibisabwa, kandi igiciro kizagabanuka bishoboka cyane. Kongera ibicuruzwa: Ubushinwa bushya bw’umusaruro wa alumina mu 2025 Gicurasi bugera kuri toni miliyoni 13.2, kandi biteganijwe ko ubushobozi bwo kongera umusaruro mu mahanga bwiyongera kuri toni miliyoni 5.1 mu 2025. Igabanuka ry’ibiciro: itangwa rya bauxite na alumina ryiyongereye, ukuvuguruzanya hagati y’ibitangwa n’ibisabwa byaragabanutse cyane, kandi igiciro cyaragabanutse buhoro buhoro.
Amashanyarazi ya aluminium
Ubushobozi bwo kubyaza umusaruro isoko bwageze ku gisenge, amahirwe yo kongera umusaruro ni make cyane, umusaruro wo hanze uterwa nimpamvu zitandukanye, kandi umusaruro ntushobora gukorwa neza. Kuruhande rwibisabwa, usibye kugabanuka kwumwaka-mwaka kugabanuka kwimitungo itimukanwa, ibindi byifuzo byanyuma byagaragaje imikorere myiza, cyane cyane mubijyanye n’ubushobozi bushya bwo kongera ingufu z’ingufu, kandi isoko n’ibisabwa ku isi byakomeje kuringaniza; Ubushobozi bwo kubyaza umusaruro imbere mu gihugu bwegereye umurongo utukura, toni 450.000 zose z’ubushobozi bushya bw’umusaruro w’imbere mu gihugu zishobora gushorwa mu 2025, kandi mu mahanga bikaba biteganijwe ko hongerwaho toni 820.000 z’ubushobozi bushya bw’umusaruro ukurikije ibipimo ngenderwaho, bikiyongeraho 2,3% ugereranije na 2024 2025. Izamuka ry’ibiciro: Ibiciro bya aluminium ya Shanghai biteganijwe ko bizahinduka hagati ya 19000-20500 yuan / toni mu gice cya mbere cy’umwaka, kandi bigahagarara mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka, kandi biteganijwe ko ibiciro bizaba 20.000-21.000 Yuan / toni.
Gutunganya aluminium
Hamwe niterambere ryihuse ryimodoka nshya zingufu, inganda zifotora no gukwirakwiza ikoranabuhanga rya 5G, icyifuzo cyibicuruzwa bitunganijwe bya aluminium bizakomeza kwiyongera kandi biteganijwe ko bizakomeza iterambere ryihuse. Kwagura ingano yisoko: Biteganijwe ko ingano yisoko izagera kuri tiriyari 1 yu, kandi hakenewe ibinyabiziga bishya byingufu, Photovoltaic, 3C ninzu yubwenge birakomeye. Kuzamura ibicuruzwa: Ibicuruzwa bigenda byerekeza kumikorere ihanitse, yoroheje kandi ikora byinshi, hamwe nubushakashatsi niterambere ryibikoresho byo mu rwego rwo hejuru hamwe nibikorwa bidasanzwe bya aluminium. Iterambere ry'ikoranabuhanga: ubwenge, kwikora muburyo rusange, ibikoresho byishoramari ryibigo, kugenzura umusaruro, kunoza imikorere nubuziranenge, ubufatanye bwinganda-kaminuza-ubushakashatsi kugirango duteze imbere iterambere ryikoranabuhanga.
Aluminiyumu
Kwinjira mugihe cyiterambere, ibinyabiziga bisakaye / byasenyutse byinjira mugihe cyumubare, gishobora kuzuza ibintu bya aluminiyumu idahagije yo mu gihugu idahagije, kandi isoko ifite ibyerekezo byinshi, ariko kuri ubu ihura nibibazo nkumubare udahagije wibicuruzwa byatumijwe hanze, imyumvire ikomeye yo gutegereza no kubona, hamwe nububiko budahagije. Ubwiyongere bw'umusaruro: Dukurikije ishami ry’icyuma cyitwa Recycled Metal ry’ishyirahamwe ry’inganda z’inganda z’Ubushinwa, rizagera kuri toni miliyoni 11.35 mu 2025. Kongera ingufu mu nganda: Mu rwego rwo kwagura ibice bibiri by’inganda nini n’inganda n’inganda, inganda zimwe na zimwe zizavaho ku isoko, kandi ibigo bifite inyungu bizashobora kugira ingaruka nini, kugabanya ibiciro, no gushimangira guhangana ku isoko.
3.Gusesengura ingamba
Alumina: Uruganda rutanga umusaruro rushobora kongera ibarura uko bikwiye mugihe igiciro kiri hejuru, gutegereza igiciro kigabanuka hanyuma buhoro buhoro bwohereza; Abacuruzi barashobora gutekereza gufata imyanya mike mbere yuko ibiciro bigabanuka kugirango bakingire isoko ryigihe kizaza no gufunga inyungu.
Amashanyarazi ya aluminium: Ibigo bitanga umusaruro birashobora kwita ku izamuka ry’ibisabwa mu turere tugaragara nk’ingufu nshya, guhindura imiterere y’ibicuruzwa, no kongera umusaruro w’ibicuruzwa bifitanye isano; Abashoramari barashobora kugura amasezerano yigihe kizaza mugihe ibiciro biri hasi bakabigurisha mugihe ibiciro biri hejuru ukurikije uko ubukungu bwifashe neza nibitangwa kumasoko nibihinduka.
Gutunganya aluminium: ibigo bigomba gushimangira udushya mu ikoranabuhanga no gukora ubushakashatsi no guteza imbere ibicuruzwa, kuzamura ibicuruzwa byongerewe agaciro no guhangana ku isoko; Kwagura byimazeyo amasoko agaragara, nkibinyabiziga bishya byingufu, icyogajuru, amakuru ya elegitoronike nizindi nzego; Shimangira ubufatanye ninganda zo hejuru no kumanuka kugirango habeho urwego ruhamye rwo gutanga isoko.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gashyantare-03-2025
